Sunday, January 20, 2019

Limits To Growth - What It Really Said? (Ugo Bardi)



A couple days ago I stumbled on AEI’s Mark J. Perry’s April 21st article (yet another regurgitation of Ronald Bailey’s imaginative 2000 Political PR con job) titled: 18 spectacularly wrong predictions made around the time of first Earth Day in 1970, expect more this year.”  This “18” attack campaign is related to malicious attacks on the book The Limits of Growth.  Ugo Bardi who has spent many years studying "The Limits to Growth” points out Bailey ignored the facts of the matter:
“In 1993 Bailey reiterated his accusations in the book titled “Ecoscam.” This time, he could state that none of the predictions of the 1972 Limits study had turned out to be correct.  Of course, Bailey’s accusations are just plain wrong. …”
“Reducing The Limits of Growth, a book of more than a hundred pages, to a few numbers is not the only fault of Bailey's criticism. The fact is that none of the numbers he had selected was a prediction and nowhere in the book was it stated that these numbers were supposed to be read as such. Table 4 was there only to illustrate the effect of a hypothetical continued exponential growth on the exploitation of mineral resources. Even without bothering to read the whole book, the text of chapter 2 clearly stated that continued exponential growth was not to be expected
The rest of the book, then, showed various scenarios of economic collapse that in no case took place before the first decades of 21st century.
Below I share links and quotes from Ugo Bardi’s series looking at the Limits To Growth book and project.  Here you’ll find the other side of the malicious bullshit the right wing PR monster has plastered all over the internet about LTG.
Bailey and Perry provide textbook examples of how ridicule, deception and fraud are the basic tools of choice in the GOP’s propaganda war against learning about our planet’s physical reality, I am working on a dissection and commentary, but it seems important to start with the facts.
Please understand, since I took part in the first Earth Day events as a high school freshman and I'm among those who love Earth sciences, I read Limits To Growth, now I’ve watched a half century get squandered, so it’s personal.  Admittedly, I skipped much in LTG that was over my head, but lets face it, you don’t need to understand the modeling and statistical minutia to appreciate the fundamental unavoidable situation being explained.  It was reducible to simple real life budgeting dilemmas and made all the sense in the world.  If you read it with good faith curiosity.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WGzahJxZBoY
To me it didn’t matter if D-day was 40 or 60 or 100 years aways, it was obvious that we were heading toward destroying the biosphere we depend on for everything. 
The Writing was being written on our wall, loud and clear and all thinking people alive at that time learned about that new reality.  We learned that the only control humanity and society possessed, was over the speed of the changes and how much time we could buy ourselves for mitigation and adaptation before impacts became overwhelmingly catastrophic.  Then most forgot it and returned to 'Hollyworld' and business as usual.  That will have real world consequences.
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Cassandras
Ugo Bardi's blog

What is most impressive in the recent world events is not so much that the authors of "The Limits to Growth" may have predicted with incredible accuracy in 1972 the start of the decline of the world's economic system, evidenced today by the financial crisis. After all, they presented several scenarios with different results. That the "base case" scenario, the one they deemed the most likely on the basis of the available data, may turn out to be right is impressive, yes, but it may have been also a bit of luck.
It is not even so impressive that "The Limits to Growth" was criticized, demonized and ridiculed in every possible way before being consigned to the dustbin of the wrong scientific theories. After all, in 1972 it was difficult to believe that it could be possible to foresee a crisis that was to occur 40 years in the future.
No, what is really impressive is that in the newspapers, in TV, or in the speeches of those who can take decisions, no one is asking what is happening and why.  (August 14, 2011)
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A Case Study in the Demonization of Inconvenient Truths
September 16, 2011 | FinancialSense.com
By Ugo Bardi | Professor of Chemistry, Analyst, University of Florence, Italy

Sunday, November 25, 2018

Ildiko Valeria Miesler (12-20-1925 / 11-24-2018)


Ildiko Valeria Miesler
December 20, 1925 - November 24, 2018

You were a most extraordinary mother,
sowing and nurturing the seeds of love, caring, 
curiosity, family, and belonging.  

Looking back from 63 I realize how you made us aware 
of our connection to this Earth that created us
"Children breath deeply, savor that clean country air." 
 and the human spirit within us, 
“Behold children what two hands have achieved.”

For navigating a challenging unforgiving world, 
you instilled in us the gift of appreciating that substance matters more than facade.

You endured much adversity always retaining the deepest love for us five children and an infectious enthusiasm for our world and the good people in it.  

Thank you with all our hearts!
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One moment I think I have a lot I'd like to write, next moment it's all silence within.  My dear mother passed away yesterday evening, nearly 93 she was ...

Thursday, October 18, 2018

7/7 Earth Centrist ponders, polite or honest?


This brings me to the end of my collection of favorite posts I’ve written looking at the climate science public education efforts over the past decades along with my experiences and observations from engaging with contrarian types. 

I compiled this collection after the Colorado State Convention for the election season and I’d hoped some activists might benefit from thinking about these issues, that most rather skirt.  

My essay received some nice pats on the back, but regarding my collection and its pleas that we need to directly engage contrarian types and campaigns, that received a resounding rejection.  I think it’s unfortunate and indicates these days even the intellectually enlightened rather talk past each other than step outside our respective comfort zones.

In any event, I sent it to a number of scientists, politicians and science communicators, with plans for much more mailing, but then work caught up with me again.  Plus, truth be told, the lack of feedback was rather disheartening.  

Then, talk about disheartening, the Judiciary Committee Democratic Senators failure to spotlight Kavanaugh’s reliance on conspiracy theory, nor his rabid partisanship, nor his threats, nor the need for judiciary standards of honesty, and the need for judiciary nonpartisanship, why no query into his feeling towards American pluralism, nothing, some hopeful moments, but when it mattered most they folded.   Just another example of Democrats impotence in the face of alt-right continued bulldozing their way through our government.  That one really kicked my ass.

Obama’s speech early September was great, but then what?  Where was Obama during the Kavanaugh hearing?  

With the election days away, perhaps We The People will shine and old time American human values of honesty and constructive community engagements will gain strength in its opposition to Me First ruthless stupidity.  I have my fears, perhaps its beyond that. 

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Earth Centrist ponders, polite or honest?

...  You see I've hurt JohnSmith's feelings again, guess I'm too busy pointing out the fallacies he's perpetrating, rather than dancing with him.  Since I seem to have a reputation as a rough kinda guy, although I prefer "up front'n honest", it's worth discussing in more detail.  

Wednesday, October 17, 2018

6/7 Sorting out Science, God, Earth, and Learning.


The Situation:
The disconnected-from-physical-reality GOP attacks on climate science (a.i.) have reached horrifying levels with the Trump Administration.  Yet science loving rationalists, pluralists, progressives, liberals, Democrats still haven’t developed effective messaging for directly confronting the most childish of Republican arguments.  Why?  Seems to me, mainly because rationalists rather sidestep that Me First driven willful ignorance.  This acquiescence to nonsense has been a fatal error for the national dialogue.

Engaging and arguing with contrarians should not be seen as an exercise in futility, they are teaching moments.  Air the false claim, explain why its wrong.  Dissect deceptions, expose them, how else can we break the power these childishly contrived memes have held over political action? (continued at ...

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I am an Earth Centrist.


Saying No To Reality (Four Corners Free Press column)

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I am an Earth Centrist !

Meaning that Earth and her physical processes and the pageant of her evolution are my touchstones.  Understanding evolution and the biosphere I'm part of and how we got here is the foundation of all my reality. 

Religions, God, political beliefs, they are all products of the human mindscape, generations of imaginings built upon previous generations of imaginings, all the way down.  

Something real and to be reckoned with, yet in the end, it's only our mindscapes at work.  While the real creation keeps on unfolding outside of our heads regardless and we're left to hang on for dear life. …

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Then there's the God v Science question.

Knowledge of God is the ultimate in personal intimate relationship, your experience can not be transferred to, or replicated for, others.  

Religions are human constructs for enabling people to reconcile themselves with the seasons and hardships of their lives and to enable human societies to function in a civil organized manner. 

A God if there be one is All Things to All People, well beyond all human* understanding as the Holy Books warn us (* read petty, fearful, greedy, self-serving humans) individuals.  

If you are fortunate enough to be touched by God, that is your gift alone, something for you in your unique life.  It is not a recipe for your neighbors or the world.

Science on the other hand is humanity’s recipe for learning about the physical world and its processes as honestly as possible.

Science is:

Learning is the goal.

Fidelity to physical facts is the gold standard.  

Free Speech doesn’t mean it’s okay to lie and slander with malicious intent.  

Informed constructive skepticism is the rule.

Mistakes are for learning.   

Dishonest bluster and bullying is a crime.

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Saying No To Reality (Four Corners Free Press column)

The following appears in the July issue of the Four Corners Free Press


Colorado's Grand Staircase's Geologic Column - Wayne Ranney
(click on image for a better view)

https://earthly-musings.blogspot.com/2013/08/ancient-landscapes-of-colorado-plateau.html
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Recently, I was minding my own business listening to a fascinating talk on YouTube titled, “Rooted in Earth History: the Devonian transition to a forested planet.”  It was about strategies that Earth’s first ground-hugging plants adapted to escape the confines of Earth’s surface.  They did this in order to reach closer to our sun and further away from plant-eaters. 

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

5/7 Taking umbrage at the abuse of our Free Speech Rights. The Jim Steele Deception.


The Situation:
The disconnected-from-physical-reality GOP attacks on climate science (a.i.) have reached horrifying levels with the Trump Administration.  Yet science loving rationalists, pluralists, progressives, liberals, Democrats still haven’t developed effective messaging for directly confronting the childish Republican arguments based on ignorance and deception.  Why?  Seems to me, mainly because rationalists rather sidestep their Me First driven willful ignorance.  This acquiescence to nonsense has been a fatal error for the national dialogue.

Always remember the onlookers, and appreciate by making the effort to explain some of the science, you’re doing homework that invigorates your own understanding.  (continued at ...

In this segment I share the summary of my couple years of actively dogging Jim Steele and his game of deception and crazy-making which I wrote up for my Four Corners Free Press column.  Steele never could engage in an upfront constructive debate, still won't.  Yet, he's first to demand that serious scientists debate with rhetorical clowns.  Why do we keep letting them get away with such nonsense?

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(Sd7) Abuse of Our Free Speech Rights (LandscapesAndCycles - Jim Steele) (FCFP)
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Abuse of Our Free Speech Rights (LandscapesandCycles-Steele)

August 2018, Four Corners Free Press, Cortez, Colorado 
    
   
Back in January, my Four Corner Free Press column was built around a talk by climate scientist Dr. Trenberth, an authority on our planet’s global heat and moisture distribution engine. In March there was a Letter to the FCFP Editor offering an alternative. 

The writer offhandedly dismissed the scientific “consensus” as though it were just another opinion, while lamenting the politicization of science (Apparently oblivious to the reality that his letter was nothing but a gross politicization). 

Ironically to underscore his legitimacy the writer encouraged us to read Jim Steele’s “LandscapesAndCycles” collection for a second opinion. As it happens, I’ll bet there are few who have studied Steels’s collection more than I have and I welcome this challenge to write about it.

You see, from my first introduction it seemed to me that what Steele was doing was a perfect example of “malicious abuse of our free speech rights,” though I didn’t have the words for it then. 

That started me on his trail.  I did a detailed review of Steele’s 2014 talk to the International Electrical and Electronic Engineers, I also transcribed his January 27, 2015 interview with Heartland’s Sterling Burnett in order to dissect his method. That one required fourteen topic-specific posts to do his torrent of misinformation justice. 

All told, I have some fifty posts unraveling Jim Steele’s deceitfulness over at my ConfrontingScienceContrarians.blogspot. 

In a nutshell, Jim Steele proposes that landscapes and natural cycles are more powerful drivers of global warming than our insulating atmosphere

Monday, October 15, 2018

4/7 An environmentalists journey to self delusion. Jim Steele's LandscapesandCycles



The Situation:
One more time, the disconnected-from-physical-reality GOP attacks on climate science (a.i.) have reached horrifying levels with the Trump Administration.  Yet science loving rationalists, pluralists, progressives, liberals, Democrats still haven’t developed effective messaging for directly confronting the most childish of Republican arguments.  Why?  Seems to me, mainly because rationalists rather sidestep that Me First driven willful ignorance.  This acquiescence to nonsense has been a fatal error for the national dialogue.

Engaging and arguing with contrarians should not be seen as an exercise in futility, they are teaching moments.  Air the false claim, explain why its wrong.  Dissect deceptions, expose them, how else can you break the power these childishly contrived memes continuing holding over political action?

Always remember the onlookers, and appreciate by making the effort to explain some of the science, you’re doing homework that invigorates your own understanding.  

When you’re challenged with things you haven’t learned about, making the effort to do the research, enriches you with a better understanding.  Seems to me it’s a win win.  …  (continued at ...

In this segment it’s time to face your fear of engagement.  Using the example of Jim Steele I dissect and document a contrarian's scam.  This was done for my own and your edification.  Leaving these people unopposed is a gross sin against future generations.


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(Sd1) Revisiting Jim Steele's LandscapesAndCycles Fraud 
            An index of past research - Steele debate #1

(Sd3) Mr.GOP don't buy Jim Steele's Fraud - LandscapesAndCycles
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Sunday, October 14, 2018

3/7 Schooling faith-blinded GOP regarding climate science.


Quick review of the background for this exercise.

        
I'll say it again talking past each other offers no chance for recognition, growth, change. 
       
I always imagined the intellectual enlightenment was all about engaging in constructive arguments and reasoning with each other, we seem to have lost that spirit and it has stifled our society miserably. 
       
Debating and defending scientific work to the public is not a scientist’s job.  Scientists have already defended their work to a learned skeptical audience and the record is openly available for continued public debate and education - scientists have more serious research to get back to.  
      
Where are the informed citizens with a willingness to debate?  Who will help us network?  
The public arena requires people outside of the scientific community.  Informed students, acquaintances, journalists, concerned citizens, to stand up to the tactical and malicious lies of corporate shackled politically motivated contrarians.  Any feedback, encouragement, networking, or support would be much appreciated.  Thank you.

CO2 Science - Blue team: "Pruitt, it's certain as certain gets! It's the physics! Don't you know?

CO2 Science - Pruitt, proof is in the pudding! Impossible Modern Marvels

Schooling Pruitt's Red Team about our planet and its climate engine (FCFP)

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