Saturday, September 11, 2010

{#10} SPPI and Lord Monckton, The Data Creates the AGW Consensus

I got a little ahead of myself in sending out this email in that I didn't do my usual detailed double check of Monckton's MFMI presentation quotes. None of my errors altered Monckton's substance, but in the interest of accuracy I have gone through this post and corrected my few errors in my Monckton quotes. . . my apologies Peter M.


In my last email {#9} I claimed that increased snow fall in Greenland is tied to AGW and does nothing to support Lord Monckton’s thesis that manmade global warming is a hoax. So, I thought this tenth email should review some of the evidence leading to the AGW consensus.

After spending sometime researching I realized there is no way I can improve upon the work done by John Cook over at They clearly lay out the arguments and point the way to verifying studies and data. In this email I will shamelessly reproduce search results including links.

Here is John Cook’s introduction to his site:
Scientific skepticism is healthy. Scientists should always challenge themselves to expand their knowledge and improve their understanding.

Yet this isn't what happens in global warming skepticism. Skeptics vigorously criticize any evidence that supports man-made global warming and yet uncritically embrace any argument, op-ed piece, blog or study that refutes global warming.

So this website gets skeptical about global warming skepticism. Do their arguments have any scientific basis? What does the peer reviewed scientific literature say?
Also, Lord Monckton, despite your shrill and colorful objections to the contrary Professor John Abraham's presentation "Abraham v. Monckton" does do an excellent job of exposing many misleading scientific claims in your 10/14/9 MFMI talk.

MFMI 1:03:10
“Now look at hurricanes. The hurricane activity is a measure of the frequency, duration, and incidents of hurricanes and typhoons and tropical cyclones all around the equator added up into a 12 month running sum. It reached its least extent in the last fifty years just a few weeks ago.

Skeptic arguments matching the search 'hurricane':
Al Gore got it wrong
Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming

Blog posts matching the search 'hurricane':
Can humans affect global climate?
Did global warming cause Hurricane Katrina?
Hurricanes And Climate Change: Boy Is This Science Not Settled!
The link between hurricanes and global warming
The physical realities of global warming
The Strange Case of Albert Gore, Inconvenient Truths and a Man in a Powdered Wig

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MFMI 1:09:20
“The fact of warming, which of course stopped in 1995 and hasn’t been resumed since.

Skeptic arguments matching the search 'warming stopped':
2009-2010 winter saw record cold spells
Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
It hasn't warmed since 1998
It's cooling
It's cosmic rays
It's El Niño
Neptune is warming
Oceans are cooling
There's no correlation between CO2 and temperature
Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming
Water vapor in the stratosphere stopped global warming

Blog posts matching the search 'warming stopped':
1998 DIY Statistics
1998 is not the hottest year on record
3 levels of cherry picking in a single argument
Can't We At Least Agree That There Is No Consensus?
Did global warming stop in 1998?
Does ocean cooling disprove global warming?
Global cooling: the new kid on the block
Global warming and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
Global warming stopped in 1981... no, wait! 1991!
Has Global Warming Stopped?
Has solar cycle 24 begun?
How we know global warming is still happening
Irregular Climate podcast 8: Journalismgate, prawngate and rock n roll
Is the climate warming or cooling?
New observations find underwater Arctic Shelf is perforated and venting methane
Ocean cooling: skeptic arguments drowned by data
On Statistical Significance and Confidence
Pielke Sr and scientific equivocation: don't beat around the bush, Roger
Svensmark and Friis-Christensen rebut Lockwood's solar paper
The correlation between CO2 and temperature
The Missing Link, Creationism and Climate Change
The Mystery of the Vanishing Ocean Heat
Understanding Trenberth's travesty

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MFMI 1:09:20
The fact of warming does not tell us its cause. Every time you hear the environmentalists say: ow it’s been melting in Greenland therefore humankind is responsible for global warming.”
MFMI 1:09:40
“We don’t know what’s causing warming so we’re gonna blame on anything we like. That is not a rational or logical argument.”

Skeptic arguments matching the search 'fact of warming does not tell us its cause':
Newcomers, Start Here
Al Gore got it wrong
Dropped stations introduce warming bias
It hasn't warmed since 1998
Oceans are cooling
Water levels correlate with sunspots
Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas

Blog posts matching the search 'fact of warming does not tell us its cause':
A detailed look at climate sensitivity
A peer-reviewed response to McLean's El Nino paper
Assessing global surface temperature reconstructions
Evaporating the water vapor argument
Global warming and the El Niño Southern Oscillation
Grappling With Change: London and the River Thames
Has Global Warming Stopped?
How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
Return to the Himalayas
What is Global Warming and the Greenhouse Effect?
Why are there fewer weather stations and what's the effect?

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MFMI 1:11:00
“And now the sea is cooling. Now this is a serious blow to the official theory.”
MFMI 1:11:10
“It should be getting hotter, it should be accumulating heat energy. But, it isn’t.
MFMI 1:12:05
“Throughout the period of measurement, which is six years, the oceans have been cooling. The heat energy is not accumulating there. And as a result the sea level over the last four years... is hardly increasing at all. It was increasing at a dizzying rate of one foot a century, now not at all.”

Skeptic arguments matching the search 'sea is cooling':
Oceans are cooling
Antarctica is gaining ice
Ice isn't melting
It's albedo
It's cooling
It's cosmic rays
It's El Niño
It's not happening
It's Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Melting ice isn't warming the Arctic
Sea level rise is exaggerated
Sea level rise predictions are exaggerated
Southern sea ice is increasing
Trenberth can't account for the lack of warming
We're heading into an ice age

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MFMI 1:12:35
“And recently a very important paper by Douglass & Knox, two very distinguished professors, I’ve had the pleasure to lead a seminar on Climate Sensitivity at their University. They’ve just produced a very fascinating paper in which they’ve gone back and looked at all the levels, all the heat energy figures for the oceans of the world going back sixty-eight years. And they find in that time no net accumulation of heat energy in the oceans whatsoever. What that means is that if you put double the CO2 in the atmosphere it is barely going to make any difference to global temperature.”

Skeptic arguments matching the search 'Climate Sensitivity':
Climate is chaotic and cannot be predicted
Climate sensitivity is low
Climate's changed before
Climategate CRU emails suggest conspiracy
IPCC were wrong about Amazon rainforests
It's the sun
Less than half of published scientists endorse global warming
Lindzen and Choi find low climate sensitivity
Mike's Nature trick to 'hide the decline'
Models are unreliable
Scientists can't even predict weather
Scientists retracted claim that sea levels are rising
Solar cycles cause global warming
Water vapor is the most powerful greenhouse gas

Blog posts matching the search 'Climate Sensitivity':
A detailed look at climate sensitivity
Climate change: Water vapor makes for a wet argument
Climate time lag
CO2 has been higher in the past
CO2 is Good for Plants: Another Red Herring in the Climate Change Debate
Common graphical tricks and the Medieval Warm Period
Comparing IPCC projections to observations
Does model uncertainty exagerate global warming projections?
East Antarctica is now losing ice
Empirical evidence for positive feedback
Empirically observed fingerprints of anthropogenic global warming
Estimating climate sensitivity from 3 million years ago
Evaporating the water vapor argument
Hansen etal hit a Climate Home Run -- in 1981
Hockey sticks, 'unprecedented warming' and past climate change
How we know the sun isn't causing global warming
Is Willis Wrong at WUWT? or Sensitivity and Sensibility I
Is Willis wrong at WUWT? or Sensitivity and Sensibility II
Klaus-Martin Schulte and scientific consensus
Lessons from the Monckton/Plimer debate
Measuring Earth's energy imbalance
Misinterpreting a retraction of rising sea level predictions
On Consensus
On temperature and CO2 in the past
Quantifying the human contribution to global warming
Solar cycles and global warming
Stephen Schwartz on climate sensitivity
The 5 characteristics of scientific denialism
The chaos of confusing the concepts
The contradictory nature of global warming skepticism
The significance of past climate change
The significance of the CO2 lag
What 1970s science said about global cooling
What CO2 level would cause the Greenland ice sheet to collapse?
What do the hacked CRU emails tell us?
What does past climate change tell us?
What the IPCC and peer-reviewed science say about Amazonian forests
Working out climate sensitivity
Working out climate sensitivity from satellite measurements

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~
MFMI 1:13:15
“The NOAA of course disagrees, but how does it get away with disagreeing, first of all it leaves out all the ARGO data - well it’s not convenient, it goes the wrong way. They leave out all the satellite data because it does the same. And they rely only on the data from ships, dropping canvas bucket down as they randomly pass across the oceans and pulling up some water and sticking a thermometer in, and only then can they make out that ocean heat is accumulating. That’s how they do it they bend the data, they don’t use the latest technique, because the latest technique are producing answers they find un-convenient.

Lord Monckton, this is such an unmitigated pack of slanderous excrement - how can you claim such nonsense? Willfully ignoring available data does not mean it isn’t there. Open your eye’s and do some honest research!

When I look at the following websites and pages I see nothing of the bumbling false cartoon you and SPPI paint for your audiences... shame on you folks, one and all.

NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory

NOAA Research programs that study Climate Variability and Change

Climate Program Office Sponsorship of scientific research aimed at understanding climate variability and change and its predictability over a continuum of timescales from seasonal to decadal and beyond.

Earth System Research Laboratory
Within ESRL, areas of research and climate variability and change include:

Radiative forcing of climate

Climate variation across time scales

Carbon cycle science

Air Resources Laboratory 
Studies of diurnal to multi-decadal variations in the global climate system, with a focus on analysis of observational data; measurement of the surface radiation budget over the United States.

Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory

Predict and Assess Decadal to Centennial Change

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Development of earth system models for the production of timely and reliable knowledge and assessments on natural climate variability and anthropogenic changes.

Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

Ocean observations in support of long-term monitoring and prediction of the ocean environment on time scales from hours to decades, to define the forcing functions and the processes driving ocean circulation and the global climate system.

Joint Research Institutes 
Research relevant to understanding the Earth's oceans, the Great Lakes, inland waters, Arctic regions, solar terrestrial environment, intermountain west and the atmosphere.

Library of Congress
Science Reference Guides

Weather and Climate Data - Science Reference Guide No. 9
The purpose of this guide is to help researchers at the Library of Congress identify resources containing weather and climate data. Not intended to be a comprehensive bibliography, it is designed to help the researcher use our catalogs effectively and to provide an introduction to basic reference sources on the topic.
































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