Dan Pangburn wrote: Perhaps you are having trouble understanding the equation that has been made public on the web that, using only one independent variable, has calculated average global temperatures since they have been accurately measured world wide (about 1895) with an accuracy of 88%. Including the influence of atmospheric carbon dioxide (a second independent variable) increases the accuracy to 88.5%.
The comments section expose's Dan's ability to side step serious critique.
Statistics and ClimateSome basics on statistics for beginners:
Statistics and Climate – Part One – independence, sampling, and the central limit theorem
Statistics and Climate – Part Two – sampling, sample size, Type I and Type II errors and Student T-test
Statistics and Climate – Part Three – Autocorrelation – the effect of autocorrelated time-series
Statistics and Climate – Part Four – Autocorrelation – how to handle statistical uncertainty with AR(1) autocorrelated time-series
Statistics and Climate – Part Five – AR(n) - introducing AR(2) and ARMA models and the problems of assuming AR(1) when the model is more complex