Tuesday, August 23, 2011

Hurricane Irene, Dr. Landsea. . . while the beat goes on. . .

The following post is from over at SkepticForum where I have sort of a dialogue with a couple "skeptics." Seems to me this one touches on the crux of our contemporary situation so I've decided to copy* it over here for whatever it's worth.
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While the beat goes on. . .
Post #26  by citizenschallenge » Mon Aug 22, 2011 9:41 pm
{*Actually this is based on post #26 since reflecting on it, I've edited it some.}


Powerful Hurricane Irene heads toward Bahamas, US
By EZEQUIEL ABIU LOPEZ, Associated Press – 8/22/11

Irene grew into a Category 2 hurricane late Monday and the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said it could become a monstrous Category 3 storm as early as Tuesday.

"We didn't anticipate it gaining this much strength this early,"
said center meteorologist Chris Landsea,
adding that the ocean's warm temperatures and the current atmosphere is "very conducive" to energizing storms.

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Consider the implications of the above admission.

Please no more old time "a single-storm-tells-us-nothing" jazz,
I'm talking about global dynamics influenced by global alterations brought about by increased total system energy.

Then consider the implication of what we see reflected in our contemporary global weather.
Case in point Hurricane Irene, she seems to vindicate Trenberth's summation of the situation way more than Landsea's dismissal. {and sorry Y, but that dramatic IPCC resignation letter Landsea wrote is all about politics containing no actual science.}

Point here is: these are the dynamics at work and this is the way things are.
We're witnessing it!
Just like the establishment climatologists have been trying so hard to explain to us.

And I guess my point with posting this is that the reality of the situation is even surprising Dr. Landsea, of skeptic fame.
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Back to Trenberth's summation of the situation that so upset Y and that's being so ruthlessly flogged around the echo chamber. Dr. Trenberth’s summation should be thought about, rather than derided with contrived misdirection.

Haven't these ridiculous fraternity mind games gone on long enough?
What will it take before we all, collectively, start taking this stuff serious?
It's the real mccoy out there and we get no second chances!

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Powerful Hurricane Irene heads toward Bahamas, US
By EZEQUIEL ABIU LOPEZ, Associated Press – 8/22/11
{continued}
... Irene is forecast to grow into a Category 3 hurricane late Tuesday as it moves over the warm waters of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas, and could maintain that strength as it nears the U.S. coast.
Florida residents were urged to ensure they had batteries, drinking water, food and other supplies.
"We must prepare for the worst and hope for the best," said Joe Martinez, chairman of the Miami-Dade County Commission.

When will the ideologically based skeptics start taking such advice more seriously?


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Let's examine the statement that upset Dr. Landsea.


You can find Dr. Landsea IPCC resignation letter here. The comments section is worth reviewing. To me the most insightful comment came from Dan Kirk-Davidoff, Asst. Professor of Meteorology, U. Maryland. I copy it below:

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Posted by: Daniel Kirk-Davidoff at January 31, 2005 10:00 AM:
Here's what Trenberth said:
"Human activities are changing the composition of the atmosphere and global warming is happening as a result," says Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at NCAR and a convening lead author of the 2007 IPCC report for the chapter on observed changes.

"Global warming is manifested in many ways, some unexpected. Sea level has risen 1.25 inches in the past 10 years as a result of warming of the oceans and glacier melting.

"The environment in which hurricanes form is changing. The result was a hurricane in late March 2004 in the South Atlantic, off the coast of Brazil: the first and only such hurricane in that region. Several factors go into forming hurricanes and where they track.

But the evidence strongly suggests more intense storms and risk of greater flooding events, so that the North Atlantic hurricane season of 2004 may well be a harbinger of the future."


This does not sound so different from what Landsea acknowledges in his letter to Trenberth.
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The conversation continues

2 comments:

T said...

I thin that in denying the Denier, you might have missed this: hurricane ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) levels are historically low levels - worldwide, according to Dr. Ryan Maud.

http://www.outlookseries.com/A0996/Science/3925_Ryan_Maue_FSU_Global_hurricane_activity_historical_lows_Ryan_Maue.htm

NEW PAPER
http://coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/tropical/2011GL047711-pip.pdf

Peter said...

Thanks for commenting.

I'm just leaving for a few days out of web range so won't have time to look at your link until I return.

But, a couple quickie points:
The accumulated cyclone energy, figure leave out the all important rain fall in their calculations. . . Meaning, though it is an interesting figure and one component of better understanding Hurricanes, the ACE is no end-all in presenting the situation, just one little tool.

The other point is that, apparently low level hurricanes are falling off while high level hurricanes are increasing. To use the ACE to deny anything is missing the point.
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Might I suggest the following two links for a better explanation along with links to authoritative science studies.

Hurricanes aren't linked to global warming development

2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816?