Wednesday, March 20, 2013

Global Warming Still Hasn't Stopped. Says who?

I came across this interesting article, unfortunately, I had a dyslexic moment and mistook the writer for Richard Alley.  To save anyone else the error, I've include some biographical information on Dr. Allan who received his PhD from the University of Reading in 1998.  The man has a very impressive CV and seems like one of those people that regular folks {who haven't spent years learned the science} should be listening to.  

Professor Allan's comments make a good introduction to the following Repost of a point by point deconstruction by Dana Nuccitelli, John Russel and John Mason over at
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Richard P. Allan   
I am a Reader in Climate Science at the Department of Meteorology, part of the University of Reading with affiliation to NCAS Climate,NCEOESSC and the Walker Institute
My research is driven by the fundamental question:   How much will the Earth warm in the current century and what are the implications for the global water cycle, upon which societies and ecosystems depend? I use Earth Observation data to explore fluctuations in clouds, water vapour, rainfall and the Earth's radiative energy balance and use this information to assess the realism of climate prediction models and improve our understanding of the climate system. 
Please also see my previous home page at ESSC. A list of my publications stored on the University CENTAUR system is included below. For a full list, see my Publications page.
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March 2013:
Comments on a misleading Mail on Sunday article on global warming
A recent story in the Mail on Sunday by David Rose attempts to mislead the public by claiming that " global warming is a myth...". When all the evidence is considered, this statement is false. As discussed by Real Climate, some aspects of climate are changing more quickly than predicted by climate simulations (e.g. Arctic ice) and others are slower than the projections (e.g. surface temperature over the last 15 years) but observational evidence is consistent with continued man-made global warming.
The article confuses variability and climate change, mixes up processes occurring over millions of years and hundreds of years and ignores the bulk of research on current climate variability and change.
The story does not use a graph from a leaked IPCC report as claimed but instead from the popular and thought-provoking blog by Ed Hawkins, Climate Lab Book, without permission and incorrectly describing some of its details. It shows how rapid warming of climate since the 1970s has slowed over the last 15 years and that warming is below the rate simulated by the vast majority of climate models. This is interesting and is actively being researched, for example in a new National Environment Research Council project, "DEEP-C" which involves the University of Reading, the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton and the Met Office. 
Current research, using observations, indicates that heat is continuing to accumulate in the oceans since 2000, consistent with the build-up in greenhouse gases. However, in the recent decade, the warming is occurring beneath the surface, suggesting that the current slowing in the rate of surface warming is due to natural ocean variability (although other factors including changes in the solar output, small volcanic eruptions, anthropogenic aerosol emission over Asia and changes in stratospheric water may also contribute). 
An illustration of the effect of variability on global warming appears in another blog by Ed Hawkins. Climate model simulations do produce decades of flat surface temperature in response to anthropogenic global warming. This is down to natural variability (sometimes the build-up of heat is buried further down in the ocean). 
The graph used in the Mail article averages over lots of models. While some models have higher rates of warming, others display little warming in each decade, because of natural variability; averaging smooths this variability out. This is primarily what gives the spread in surface temperature changes over the last few decades. 
The article contains many other inaccuracies for the rest of the story please visit his website at University at Read Meteorology Department 
{A previous article by David Rose appeared in the Mail earlier this year and the expert reaction was similarly damning. Recent blogs, for example Bad AstronomyThe Carbon Brief and Skeptical Science, also offer an opinion on the recent Mail article.}

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David Rose Hides the Rise in Global Warming (via Skeptical Science)
Posted on 19 March 2013 by dana1981, John Russell, John Mason It seems like we have to debunk this myth on a weekly basis, as it keeps popping up in the mainstream media.  So, yet again, this is global warming: Figure 1: Land, atmosphere, and ice heating (red), 0-700 meter ocean heat content (OHC)…

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